Doug Ford Calls an Early Ontario Election

A look at the entrants and a general overview of what to expect on February 27.

Well, it’s official. We’re not only going to have a federal election this year, but also a provincial election in Ontario. It’s shaping up to be a “Doug Ford vs Everyone” sort of election with attacks on him aplenty. My plan is not to use this space as a means to endorse anyone, but as a chance to set alight some of the blind spots you might have leading up to February 27, 2025. Recent polls have Doug Ford sitting on a sizable lead.

Of course, with an unusual winter election looming, one has to treat everything that the Ford government did leading up to the announcement as a form of campaigning. This includes the $200 rebate cheque, but also smaller things like a highway construction milestone. That’s how this stuff works, for better or worse.

I expect that Ford knew he was going to call an election as far back as last summer. There will be a ton of talk about his strategy. It seems like an opportune time for this with the federal Liberal’s hurting and given Ford’s biggest threat is a Liberal. The Liberals are likely to be hurting much less in a year. There is also talk of having a mandate to counter Trump’s tariffs, but that, like a ton of stuff you’ll hear is bunk.

The choices are: Doug Ford (PC), Bonnie Crombie (Liberal), Marit Stiles (NDP), and Mike Schreiner (Green).

Ford, of course, has a bunch of baggage trailing him. A report just recently released by the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario describes how very costly it has been to bring alcoholic beverages to the local stores. The wastage numbers are staggering, possibly over $1 Billion. Ford seems to have an unusual focus on tipsy beverages, think of buck-a-beer. Don’t forget also, there was the green-belt scandal. There were many other issues that will probably be highlighted as others gun for the office like the ‘moribund’ LTB and perhaps stalled housing priorities and the goofy tunnel-under-the-401 and the never-ending Eglinton Crosstown construction controversy.

Certainly, Bonnie Crombie is likely to take the lead in attacking Ford and she has a ton of stuff to work with. It’s kind of a scandal buffet, a scandal for everyone’s personal pain points. Of course, she’s just hoping us hapless Ontario voters forget about a certain other billion dollar boondoggle. You may also remember that she served three terms as Mississauga’s mayor. She’ll be the biggest threat to Doug Ford in February, so it will depend on how well she can resonate with voters.

Then, the NDP entrant Marit Stiles, who has already been endorsed by the United Steelworkers union (USW) with a press release. Stiles is currently the leader of the official opposition in Ontario. Her party has faced some controversy with the expulsion of Sarah Jama from the party. The last time we had an NDP premier was from 1990 to 1995 with Bob Rae. That was so long ago, few are likely to remember what the NDP was like, and fewer still would remember that was in the thick of a tough recession.

Rounding out the main entrants is Mike Schreiner who has an uphill battle against all the rest. The Greens 2022 run was less than stellar, leading to only one seat in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.

The previous election had 4,701,959 people cast their ballot, a mere 44.06% of eligible Ontario voters that came out. We’re really going to need more engagement this year from the electorate. Make sure you make a plan to vote on February 27.

How do I predict this election will go? Expect a Doug Ford majority. What do you think?

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